Barry Callebaut (BARN) trims outlook as cocoa volatility weighs on volumes

Swiss chocolatier Barry Callebaut (BARN) reported its third revision to full-year volume expectations, citing extreme volatility in cocoa prices, as unveiled in its nine‑month results today. The company now anticipates a 7 % drop in sales volume by Aug. 31—an increase from the earlier forecast of a mid‑single‑digit decline—while revenues surged approximately 50 %, fueled by successful cost pass‑through to end customers . Cocoa futures, once as high as $12,000/ton, have recently softened to around $8,000/ton, yet inventories bought at the peak continue to weigh on results. This inventory burden, together with tempered demand and macroeconomic uncertainty, has prompted macro hedge funds and commodity managers to establish short positions in Barry Callebaut shares—betting on further profit pressure.

Once cocoa markets stabilize—through improved supply forecasts in South America or West Africa—the massively discounted cocoa cost curve should relieve margin strain. When futures normalise, the equation swings in Barry Callebaut’s favor, setting the stage for a sharp rebound in both volumes and earnings. For patient investors, here’s the playbook: wait for cocoa futures to settle, and you may see Barry Callebaut soar, retracing the elevated short interest once market fundamentals reassert themselves.