Nestlé’s 9M 2025: Tough medicine, clearer diagnosis
Nestlé’s new CEO is taking tough action: 16,000 job cuts, sharper portfolio focus, and a push for RIG-led growth—real demand, not just pricing. After years of inflation-driven gains, the world’s biggest food group is betting on leaner operations and genuine volume recovery.
Nestlé’s nine-month update mixed a modest demand recovery with the company’s most forceful restructuring in years. Organic growth improved to 3.3% for January–September, with real internal growth—volumes and mix—finally positive again, and third-quarter RIG accelerating to 1.5%. Alongside the numbers came a clear reset from the new chief executive: a tougher cost agenda, a sharper portfolio lens, and a pledge to make RIG-led growth the north star.
The headline move is scale and speed. Nestlé will cut about 16,000 jobs globally over the next two years—roughly 6% of its workforce—while lifting its “Fuel for Growth” savings target to CHF 3.0 billion by end-2027 from CHF 2.5 billion previously. Of those reductions, some 12,000 are white-collar roles as shared services and automation expand; roughly 4,000 more will come from productivity programs in manufacturing and supply chain. Management guides to one-off restructuring costs at around two times annual savings. This is not just trimming; it’s a deliberate re-wiring of how the world’s biggest food group runs.
Equally important is where the knife—and the money—will go. The new CEO, Philipp Navratil is scrutinizing the portfolio with an unsentimental eye: improve performance, cut where needed, and channel capital to the businesses with the best returns. That means doubling down on “priority growth opportunities,” pushing accountability across 18 underperforming “business cells,” and continuing strategic reviews where the fit is less obvious. Waters & Premium Beverages remains under evaluation, including potential partnerships; in Health Science, a review of mainstream and value VMS brands may lead to divestments. The bias is clear: simplify, focus, and fund what demonstrably works.
Why the urgency? Last year’s price hikes protected margins but dulled volumes in several categories and geographies. The Q3 print suggests that drag is fading: organic growth strengthened to 4.3% in the quarter as elasticity eased, with coffee, confectionery and Nespresso doing more of the heavy lifting, and e-commerce crossing 20% of group sales. The company says the goal now is RIG-led growth—volume and mix before price—supported by productivity savings that can be redeployed into innovation and brand support rather than merely propping up margins. That is a culturally meaningful shift for a packaged-food giant emerging from an inflationary cycle.
Real Internal Growth is Nestlé’s measure of volume plus mix, excluding pricing and currency effects. When growth is RIG-led, it signals genuine demand and healthier market-share gains rather than inflation-driven price lifts. That kind of growth tends to be more durable, creates better operating leverage, and gives management optionality—price can be used surgically, not as a crutch—supporting margin quality, cash generation, and ultimately a higher-quality earnings mix.
The leadership reset also matters for credibility. After a turbulent handover, the board installed a CEO with a reputation for execution and a tighter operating cadence. The message from the top is deliberately plain-spoken: fix the cost base, narrow the focus, and let volumes do the talking. Investors have been asking for exactly this combination—cleaner RIG, measurable self-help, and a portfolio plan that moves beyond org charts. They got all three.
Is this a turning point? It’s the beginning of one. The improvement in volumes, coupled with a much larger and faster savings flywheel, sets up a better 2026 if execution holds. There are still soft spots—Greater China remains a drag and category demand in parts of PetCare and mainstream health is uneven—while foreign exchange is a stiff headwind. And any five-figure headcount reduction carries operational and cultural risks. But the direction is finally aligned: a critical portfolio review, a performance-first mindset, cuts where necessary, and a pivot to RIG-led growth. If Nestlé converts the savings into visible market-share gains and steadier volumes, 2025 could be remembered as the year it stopped playing defense.
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Investment manager, forged by many market cycles. Learned a lasting lesson: real wealth comes from owning businesses with enduring competitive advantages. At Qmoat.com I share my ideas.