Novo Nordisk released fresh Phase 3 data showing its once-daily oral semaglutide 25 mg—“Wegovy in a pill”—cut body weight by 16.6% over 64 weeks, with about a third of participants losing at least 20%. That puts the pill within striking distance of the weekly injection’s efficacy, and it’s the first oral obesity candidate on the FDA’s desk for a decision later in 2025. Shares ticked higher on the news as investors priced in a broader on-ramp for patients and a potential easing of injector-supply bottlenecks.

Is it relevant for Novo? Yes—commercially and strategically. A pill should lower friction for starts, widen primary-care adoption, and diversify supply beyond auto-injectors. Novo can also lean on semaglutide’s established safety and cardiovascular profile to convince payers and prescribers that an oral route is more than a convenience upgrade. The watch-outs: adherence with a daily pill and the familiar GLP-1 GI side-effect curve; both will shape real-world persistence and pricing power.

Eli Lilly’s small-molecule orforglipron just posted late-stage results in diabetes showing superior A1C and weight loss vs. Novo’s Rybelsus (oral semaglutide), and separate obesity data showed ~12.4% weight loss at 72 weeks at the top dose—good, but shy of Novo’s new 16.6% obesity readout. Lilly’s edge is manufacturability: a true small molecule could scale faster and cheaper than peptide-based orals. Timing, labeling, and capacity will decide share as these products roll through regulators.

Elsewhere in the pipeline, Pfizer exited danuglipron after liver-toxicity concerns, removing a near-term oral rival. Structure Therapeutics (GSBR-1290/“aleniglipron”) is running mid-stage trials with earlier signals of mid-single-digit to high-single-digit percentage weight loss at short durations; toplines are guided for late 2025. Roche (via Carmot) has CT-996, an oral small-molecule GLP-1 with early Phase 1 signals and an explicit push into obesity and diabetes. Viking is advancing an oral VK2735 program alongside its injectable; early data and a positive Phase 2 readout in 2025 keep it on the watchlist. The takeaway: Novo’s pill is first to the regulatory finish line in obesity, but durable oral leadership is not a lock.

Bottom line: Today’s dataset is material for Novo. If approved on the stated timeline, an oral Wegovy could expand the top of the funnel, protect semaglutide’s franchise from small-molecule challengers, and extend the GLP-1 runway into 2026—provided adherence and payer dynamics don’t blunt the commercial impact.